Can you hear me? I can hear you. You can hear me okay. Yep. Welcome back from the power break. Thank you all for your participation and don't forget if you have a technician in mind to nominate for the foundations technician of the year award program. Let us know. Let us know in the chat below. We'll reach out to you with some more information. We'd like to thank the sponsor for our final session, perceptive processing. Joining us today from perceptive processing is Michael Davis. Michael. Hello. Hey, Michael. How are you? I'm doing great. Thank you. Tell us a little bit about Perceptive Processing. Okay. So, I just want to take a minute here to thank you all for letting us get on here and sponsoring this event today. We've got a long relationship, or I have, with AED. Just love the association. So, I want to tell you a little bit. We do credit card processing for equipment dealers around the country. That's exactly what we do. That's what I specialize in. I've been doing this for over 15 years, dealing with just equipment dealers. And one of the things that makes us different is that we have negotiated a wholesale rate with MasterCard Visa, American Express, specifically for AED members. So, with that being said, you know, we started this company here three years ago. I was with another company, left there because got tired of seeing people getting their rates raised constantly. And, you know, that's just not the way business should be done, especially in the credit card industry. So, we don't raise rates. We keep the same rate that we promised you. We save people typically 10% to 40% on equipment dealers, which should be, you know, thousands of dollars for you guys. And after we get signed up, we just don't go away. Okay. So, one of the best things that we do is our customer service. We're personalized. So, you have our direct line number. You have one representative that takes care of you. So, when you call in, you don't have to wait in line or be pushed around at different departments or select different numbers. You get a person, a live person that's actually going to answer the phone. So, if any of you would like for a free analysis of your current situation, please feel free to send me over a processing statement. One or two months is perfect. And you can send that to me at mdavis at perceptivepro.com. Again, that's mdavis at perceptivepro.com. And I'll look forward to doing some free analysis for you guys, see what your current situation is. I appreciate the time. And now back to you, Phil. Thanks, Mike. Thanks, Mike. Really appreciate that. All right. Our final speaker for this afternoon is John Blodgett, a Steppenwolf fan. John began working for McCain Company in 1994 as a project manager overseeing single and multi-client research projects. He is now a regular speaker at industry events and has presented for AEM, ATD, and MIRA, just to name a few. And he can throw AED on that now, too. John has been a guest on AutoLine TV show, Transport Topics Radio on Sirius, and is a regular contributor to industry publications. Today, he will provide both an update on the construction-related economy and share the latest information on aftermarket demand in the industry. Please welcome John Blodgett. Thank you, Phil. I appreciate your intro there. And thank you to the AED for having me here for this presentation, for the small dealer group. Also, thank you to Perceptive Processing for sponsoring this session. I look forward to some of you who may have the same color hair as me, may be familiar with McCain Company. We've done work with AED in the past and look forward to doing some work on your different programs in the future. We hope to be able to meet some of you at the annual conference next year. So, Phil is correct. Today, I'm going to provide our kind of input update on what we're seeing in the economy, specifically what we're seeing in the construction equipment economy, and then what we're seeing for the aftermarket. I'll give you a little background on how we measure that and how we project that out for the marketplace. So, a little background on McCain Company. We are a specialized market research consulting firm. We primarily work in the on-highway commercial truck market and the off-highway agriculture and construction equipment markets. Our clients tend to be the folks who manufacture the equipment, the components, the tires, the lubricants, or sell any of those to the marketplace. We also work with private equity firms and some of the publishing companies, but primarily the equipment and component manufacturers. We're based outside of Chicago. We're not too big of a firm. We're about 14 or so folks, and we do a lot of proprietary research, and I'll put a little commercial in here. If you happen to get a survey from us, if we do survey distribution points as well, we'd really appreciate your input, because the reality is a lot of what we do is gather feedback from the people that are on the front lines of selling equipment and servicing them, the equipment, and selling parts into the marketplace. So if you happen to see our surveys, please fill them out. So I'm going to start with the economy, and then we'll get into the aftermarket. We do have an economist on staff, so he's much brighter in this information than I am, but he's very good at explaining it to us and teaching it to us. I should also mention, if you have any questions, feel free to type them in, and Phil may interrupt with the questions at some point, or we'll get to them at the end. And if possible, please report them to me. If we don't get to all of them, I will promise to get back to everybody. I'm going to talk a little bit about what we believe the recession is going to look like, we believe it's going to be, and this is primarily driven from our economists, a W-shaped recession. You've probably heard a lot of talk about L-shaped and V-shaped and U-shaped and Nike Swish or K-shaped. So here's another letter for you. We think it's likely to be a W recession. We'll talk a little bit about that. Give you a little update on a report we have. It's called Truckable Economic Activity. Although the word trucking's in there, it tends to be a pretty good indicator of what's going on in the economy. Give some insights from that. We'll look at some employment data and then some other indices that help us look at the construction equipment market. So there's your W. Our anticipation is there's going to be four parts to this recession that we're all living through. The recession officially started in February, and Bob Dealey, our economist, believes we're now on the second leg of that recession. I'm not talking about a double-dip recession. I'm talking about where you'd have two separate recessions. We just think this recession, what we're going through right now, is reopening and rebounding after our deep dive in March and April. We're coming out of that. Our concern is that we're likely to have a bit of a slowdown here going forward, and that can be driven by a couple of things. One, pandemic coming back with another gut punch and slowing things down. And I actually put this deck together about a week, week and a half ago, and just in the last week, I'm outside of Chicago. But all the states in the Midwest and all around are starting to shut down again. So unfortunately, we're starting to see some of that impact of that double punch there. We also think there's going to be some issues as we continue to grow this economy. We're coming back strong in some areas that the supply chains aren't going to be able to keep up with that demand, and that's going to cause some problems. And we're actually seeing some of that on the aftermarket. We're getting some feedback from dealers. They can't get certain parts or they can't get them in the time frame guaranteed to them. So we'll have to watch that as well. And then once we get past that, we believe we'll get into the new reality, the new world of what the economy is going to look like. We'll finally come out of that in the fourth stage. Now, I should say, I hope maybe we're not going to have that W. Maybe it'll just be more of a U and we'll just keep going or a V. I kind of feel weird wishing that our economist is not going to be right, but if possible, that would be nice. But indications are and the signs we're seeing is we're likely going to have a little bit of a slowdown before we get better. We've got some negative employment numbers today as well. So here's the length of recessions, all the last recessions we've had since the late 1950s. And so you can see anywhere from six to 18 months. There's typically two types of recessions. There's a structural change and I'm just blanking on the name, but kind of a normal recession where the economy, the structure of the economy stays the same from pre-reconomy till afterwards. You just have a slowdown in business. A structural change means there's significant changes in how we do business and how people go to market and what goes on in the marketplace. And unfortunately, we've had three structural recessions and those are all the ones with the longest months on there. Early 70s, early 80s. The last recession we had in 2007 through 2009 really changed the market and obviously what's going on with these type of meetings and what's going on in the marketplace with where people work or where they don't work. A lot of that's not going to go away. A lot of that's going to have a long-term impact on how we do business. So we're nine months into this recession. Started in February and it's probably likely at least to go through the end of the year and likely longer. Just a quick slide on GDP and what we call truckable economic activity. And truckable economic activity is really the measurement of products and goods that can move by truck. And it's more volatile, but it's more kind of more succinct, better pulse on what's going on. Typically, truckable economic activity falls off more than GDP because GDP has consulting time, medical time, non-product goods in that measurement. And this is the measurement that shows you where the second quarter of 2020, you can see that severe drop-off of GDP and TEA. And actually the red line there, real GDP fell off more than TEA, which is very unusual. And the other unusual thing about this recession, you've lived it, so you know, is it typically we kind of rolled into a recession and gradually gets worse and worse. And then like our last recession, kind of the last quarter was the worst quarter of the recession. This one, we got hit hard right away. And we went down hard in the second quarter and it didn't just shut down the movement of products and goods, it shut down doctor's offices, lawyers' offices, pretty much everything. So it was, you know, didn't really pick and choose, pretty much all segments of the economy got hit. So it's different from that standpoint. Hopefully that was the worst quarter impact, and then we'll come back from there. We took a deep dive, but this is a little bit different format than most recessions. So, you know, we've got some information on what's going on with employment, starting to get a look at what's going on in the second phase. And it'll start giving us some clues on how this is all going to play out. And that's what we're going to take a look at. Some of the headline news is okay, but we got to dive into some of the details and some of the key things to look at, especially now that we seem to be getting this double punch here, leisure and hospitality and local education. But first, let's look at total non-farm payroll. So we've lost a significant amount of jobs. We're still down over 10 million jobs from where we were pre-recession. So we see the numbers down there in the bottom are the months of the year. The green bars are employment levels. And you can see we've been coming back since April, but you can see we're not, you know, we're still quite a ways away from being where we were pre-recession wise. And the growth the last few months has not been that significant. We want to see growth, but we'd like to see bigger jumps than that month to month. So we've got a ways to go. It's probably more positive than some people anticipated based on where we were a few months ago, but we've got a little ways to go and a long ways to go actually to get back to where we were. Bob looks at what he calls the elite age. They tend to be a little more sensitive to economic things going on in the economy. And in this economy is certainly it's been different. And it's been a real test on different areas. And some of the areas that concern us are the leisure and hospitality. So that is restaurants, hotels, amusement parks, movie theaters. They've been hit hard and retail trade as we get into the holiday season. Now, e-commerce is doing well, but I live outside of Chicago and people going up and down State Street or going to the malls into the same numbers that they were last year or previous years. It's not likely to happen. So that's a concern. So you don't need as many employees. So there's a lot of different areas that can get hit. Health care-wise, I mentioned earlier when the recession started, obviously, the concern was for people getting COVID. But we also shut down dentist offices and a lot of other doctor's offices that had nothing to do with COVID. But no surgery, if I needed knee surgery, hip surgery, all that got put on hold. The concern would be, is that going to get stopped again as well or slowed down? A lot of people were put out of work. A surgeon lives next to me. I never saw him as much as I did between March and June. Otherwise, I never used to see him. Another one that's not up there as a concern is public education. And that's not just teachers. There's school bus drivers and custodians and lunchroom people and crossing guards. And with a lot of the schools not coming back full or not coming back at all, or my daughter is a school teacher, they just shut down again. A lot of people being out of work for that. So that is really a concern. We're not going to get back up that 10 million jobs until we start getting kids back in school and people back in stores. And obviously, that also helps people be able to go back to work. Otherwise, they have to be home because they may have responsibilities at home if their kids don't have somewhere to do or somewhere to go. This is total construction spending, the billions of dollars. And obviously, it's a big market. And you can see from these charts here that economic slowdowns sometimes have a big impact on the market for construction, as it did during the last recession. The last recession had a lot of residential construction. And to a lesser degree, commercial construction was hit pretty hard. But other recessions, like in the early 1990s and early 2000s, construction market didn't take as big of a hit. We've had a couple of long periods of economic growth in the 1990s, mid-2000s. And then the last 10 years or so, a little anemic in the beginning there, but we've had some pretty good growth there. If we look at total construction and how it breaks out, there's basically three portions. There's non-residential there on the bottom, which is about, can be anywhere at 37% to 40% of the total. The average is about 39%. There's residential construction, which is about 35%, 36%. And then government on the top, which is the balance around 24%, makes up of those total dollars. If we look at the total private, we take the construction out of there. You can see that's a little bit more variable there. It's a little more prone to ups and downs of the economy. The concern here is, we've had a couple of good growth periods, but the concern is a couple of things. What's going to happen here in the future? I'm going to dig down into that a little bit further here. We look at private residential construction. Similarly, we've had a deep drop-off. As we all know, anybody who's been around long enough, we had a big drop-off in the last recession, but it's come back pretty well. And the indications are that this sector is going to do pretty good. It's so far, through this recession, has done pretty well. This is being driven, in part, I'll show you some slides here. But this is being driven in part by low interest rates. Now, not everybody can do this, but some people are saving more money than they've been able to save in the past, because they're not going on trips, and they're not spending money at restaurants or at stores to the degree they were in the past. So they've got the ability, if they want to, to potentially upgrade their house or move. If they didn't have a house, some people have now figured out that they can't. Some people have now figured out that they don't need to be where they were for their job, and they've got the ability to go other places. So this has really kind of helped the residential construction market. This slide here looks at single-family housing permits. We've seen that steadily increase. We just got the October numbers yesterday, and they were very strong, again, up a little bit above where it was in September. Initially, those increases back in May and June, we looked at those and thought, well, maybe that's just because people couldn't get into the offices and the local governments to get the permits to do the construction. But we're well beyond that now. We're seeing good strength in that. And it's a precursor to single-family housing units being started, which have also been strong. So it's more than just the flow of permits getting through. The houses have started. Interest rates are low. You know, the need to potentially have a bigger house, because maybe I need an office in my house, or I don't want to be in a city anymore, so I'm going to move out further in the suburbs. We're all driving this boom. So that's been a positive for the economy, and specifically for construction. Private non-residential construction would be office buildings, malls, items like that. And this market doesn't tend to be as up and down as residential. It's not as tied into interest rates, and it's more long-term. You don't typically build a factory unless you have a reason to build a factory. But this is a concern going forward, because we talk about malls, and you talk about restaurants, or you talk about structures like that. You know, what's the need going to be in the future? Commercial office space. My wife works in a commercial real estate business. Their industrial property is going crazy, but their commercial offices are a concern, and some of their, obviously, their restaurants in some areas are a concern as well. So what's the need going to be in the future? Are people ever going to... I don't think everybody's going to come back to work even when we get a vaccine. They'll probably still figure out that some people don't have to be in the office, and how's that going to impact commercial real estate market? And then also, you know, are people going to get used to buying online and may not want to go back to the mall the way they used to? We'll see. Government spending is primarily infrastructure projects. Again, not as prone to ups and downs as the private construction, and so, you know, a little bit more stable and a little more able to plan that a little bit more. I feel like we always talk about this, but with all the conflict going on in government, this seems to be one area where people think there's going to be some agreement, although we never really see it. But maybe, hopefully, possibly, we'll start to see some infrastructure projects get agreed to and get started, and we'll see that sector pick up. So a few little mileposts or benchmarks if you look forward through the year to see how things are going. Before I put this deck together, and this is really the first presentation I've given, where there's actually been positive news about vaccines. Now, the timing on the vaccines is, I've heard all sorts of stories on the timing, but I haven't, you know, heard about vaccines, but nothing specific as to things that work, and I have heard that in the last week, so that's a good thing. So a few mileposts for you. Superbowl's in February. So that's one single location domestically in the U.S. where people travel from primarily two cities, but from all over the country to one single destination. What's that going to look like? Are people going to go to the Superbowl? I think they've already made plans that they're going to limit how many people go to that, but it'll be interesting to see how many people have the ability to go, actually do go. Do they allow people in to the Superbowl? We'll see. March is another kind of milepost. We've got the March Madness, the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball Tournaments across the country. We have a lot of regional playoffs where people have domestic travel to many different locations. Will that come off? Will that happen? Where will vaccines be by March? Will we be able to put people in a sports arena to watch a basketball game with any great numbers? And then the Olympics, kind of the final milepost there, that'll be in the summertime, and I'm hopeful by then that maybe for the most part, at least most of the people at risk and most of the older people should have vaccines by then, and maybe even some of the other folks that maybe we'll be doing more travel and feel more comfortable getting out and about. Maybe we'll all have access to vaccines by then, but the Olympics, that's global travel. People coming from all over the world to one location. And will that go off? It was delayed from last year or this year. Will that go off? Will people be coming across all different countries to one location? So those will be kind of mileposts to look at in six months and see how those all came out. So based on what we know right now, we anticipate this recession is gonna last a bit longer, at least through the balance of the year, probably into at least early 2020. The recovery is really gonna be balanced on determining our progress to resolve the public health issues. We can't, we gotta get people back, kids back in school. We gotta get stores, restaurants, shops back open, have people feel comfortable going out and visiting and going to those locations. And certainly a vaccine would help that immensely. So the timing and the rollout of that will be key as well. And I think we all have what we hope to see, but we don't really all know how it's gonna shake out. So that is gonna be the real determination and how we come out of this recession. We do think there'll be, as I mentioned, a bit of a slowdown and then a bounce back. So let's talk about the aftermarket for construction equipment. McCain Company, we profile the aftermarket for replacement parts and lubricants and tires on construction equipment. We also do that for agriculture equipment. We do it for on-highway trucks. We do it in a number of countries. I'm gonna walk you through some of the things that we measure and how we put that together and what our profile of that aftermarket looks like and what the forecast looks like. So we'll talk a little about what equipment we cover, retail sales, the operating population, who we survey, how the equipment's used, replacement, how components are replaced, and then do some measurements of that market. So for the construction equipment market, it's the one market where we don't really cover everything in the universe. And that's because there's so many different types of construction equipment. The agriculture equipment market, we pretty much get all the tractors, all the combines, all the sprayers, all the tillage harvesting equipment. Truck market, we get all the school buses, trailers, trucks. Construction equipment market, we had to cut some lines, make some lines, but we've got a big chunk of the construction equipment market. We don't have everything. We have five types of equipment, several size segmentations within those five types of equipment. Some of you who've been around for a while, you might remember construction equipment magazine. There's a, they used to provide a detailed profile of the operating universe of lifting, paving, and construction. Well, McCain Company did all that research behind that. And we estimated these five types of equipment represent about 70, 75% of the mobile off highway construction equipment market. So we, every year as part of our process, we look at retail sales, how many pieces of equipment are coming into the operating universe. These are just some kind of benchmarks over the last 20 years of retail sales. And you can see some have remained fairly the same. Others have seen significant changes. Skid steers obviously took off quite a bit and we've seen a little fall off and back full boaters. Retail sales is part of it. The other thing we want to understand is how often pieces of equipment are falling out of the operating universe. The nice thing about construction equipment is they're in rough applications and that tends to, it's great for the aftermarket. It also doesn't allow the equipment to last as long. Let's say an average tractor on the farm last 20 years. An average piece of construction equipment probably around nine or 10 years. So we do have a mortality model helps us figure out how long equipment lasts. This is breaking out the operating populations of equipment that we looked at. I think we've got about 140,000 or so, excuse me, look at by equipment type. Another difference with the construction equipment market compared to some others is this is the percentage of equipment that they represent to the operating population. I'm going to show you another slide and what they represent in aftermarket parts demand. Most other markets is pretty equivalent and the construction equipment market's not just based on some of the applications. We do break the market down by vocation, different applications, types of businesses. They have different operating characteristics and how they use the equipment that impacts the aftermarket replacement demand as well. So we need to know how much of that equipment out there is in the different locations. Leased rental, the biggest one, 31%. Certainly we've been doing this for 30 years. That's been more of a growth segment. It's more people that own construction equipment understand that they don't have to own everything. They've got a need for a piece of equipment. Sometimes it's smarter to lease or rent that piece of equipment. Highway and heavy building construction are a couple other big segments and you can see some of the smaller ones there as well. So I'm going to show you how big we size that aftermarket and some forecast data. But how we do that is we survey the folks who have the equipment. Number one, we figure out how much equipment's out there and then we have to apply some consumption data to that equipment. So we survey folks who own and maintain that equipment, your customers, I would believe. And so this is an example of a typical survey. We get a lot of surveys back. Our last survey close to 800 and we get a mix from different vocations. So we get a good mix of people by different applications. We still kind of old school. We do pretty much everything through the mail. People tend to, not easy to delete a piece of mail. So that seems to work a little bit better. We also send them money, remind them to do it so it works and we get good feedback. They know we're not going to sell their names and they know it goes to a good cause and they can donate money to charities as well. But we get good samples as you can see from that. So this is, just to give you a feel, I mean, we do this for each piece of equipment, by each size, by each vocation. We want to know how much that equipment gets used each year. And so this is average annual hours rolled up by equipment type. You can see anywhere from 600, basically 700 to over 1100 hours for these different types of equipment. But we need to know how many hours per year that equipment is operating because the other question we're going to ask is how often do you typically replace? Do an engine overhaul, lube oil filter, hydraulic filter, bucket tooth. How often do you typically replace that? On your piece of equipment. And we ask that typically in hours as well. So once we know how many hours per year that equipment is running, how many hours they typically go until they replace that component that gives us the replacement frequency so we can figure out the demand. Just a quick snapshot here on a few components on crawler loaders. One of our guys put this together over the last 20 years. This is impact on all markets, but the engineers that design and create this equipment have built components and equipment that last longer. And so that's a negative from an aftermarket standpoint, but there's been other positive. We're adding a lot more technology and software and other things that helps increase the aftermarket opportunity for a piece of equipment. But on straight components, they last longer than they used to. So it does take longer to get to that replacement cycle and it does negatively impact the aftermarket. So we estimate, this is that retail dollars, just parts, this would be parts and some tires, but about $8.2 billion aftermarket in the US for those five types of equipment. And as I mentioned earlier, if you look there on the left, that's the demand by type of equipment. So remember skid steers was one of the biggest portions of the market in number of equipment, but it's not the biggest in demand for aftermarket parts because their applications are not as rough for the most part. And their parts, replacement parts on a per piece basis are not as expensive. So that diminishes the size of the aftermarket related to skid steers. But about 8.2 billion with a big chunk of that coming from the wheel loaders. You can see their excavators, crawler dozer loaders behind that. Skid steers are second, 19%, but wheel loaders are really a big driver there. And then by vocation, you can see highway and heavy, which was not the biggest segment in population, but does drive the biggest segment of aftermarket demand. Lease rental was the largest in operating population, but they tend to have smaller equipment, not across the board, but on average, and it tends to be newer equipment. So it doesn't have as higher as parts consumption. So, but about 8.2 billion in total. We do ask, this is not a very instructive slide, but we do ask what types of parts you use. This is in total for all the parts on those five types of equipment. You use a new replacement part, or do you use a remanufactured part or local rebuilt or used? If I did this, just for example, for clutches or for alternators and starters, it would be a different pie. There's a lot of pieces of equipment that only have new as an option. So that's why that new is 79%. But I did want to give you a flavor because there's different prices based on whether the parts new or remanufactured to use. Use the most expensive, followed by reman used would be the least expensive. We also want to know who does the service work. And about, and this is 2010, 2020, as statistically basically the same, a little over two thirds of the service work is done by the folks who own and maintain the equipment. So whether it's a guy with a dump and skid steer on an excavator or a large construction fleet with thousands of pieces of equipment, based on the value of the replacement parts, about over 70% of it is done by the fleets themselves. Now, if they outsource it, the equipment dealer, service work that is, is the biggest from a choice standpoint, although that's fallen off a little bit. We see specialists have picked up a little bit in the last 10 years. We assume if somebody owns a piece of construction equipment and they take it to an equipment dealer or they take it to an independent repair shop, that that source for the service is going to get the sale for the part. And obviously also in construction market, this would also include the dealer coming out to the market. So if they've got, if they've got a truck and they're going to come out and do some service work, that would be included in that as well. This chart looks at, at the end of the day, where are the parts bought? So that $8.2 billion at retail, where is it bought? Majority, biggest chunk is bought of the equipment dealer, but we have seen that fall off. It was as high as 58% back in 2010. It's down to 48% right now. Independent distribution, which I believe I may be incorrect, but I think a lot of you would fall into that category. I've seen some pretty good increases there. And typically what we see on the independent distribution side is for the most effective players in that segment, but usually the ones that'll go the extra mile to get that business, provide the, you know, whatever breadth of products the customer needs, do the extra hours. It doesn't necessarily mean having lower prices. That means doing the extra activities, building those relationships to get that business. So equipment dealer, you know, there's a lot of proprietary parts. And in some cases, you don't have any choice, but so the equipment dealer and not just in this market tends to be the biggest source for replacement parts. You can see there's been some other shifts. We've seen a little bit fall off in independent shops, you know, a little bit of an increase in engine distributors. Auto parts stores have done a real good job, both in the agriculture and construction equipment markets of filling a void there where a lot of dealers have gone away and some other specialists have gone away. They've got the belt hoses, filtered screws, exhaust parts that can be used on the construction equipment or can be used on agriculture equipment to fill that gap. So they've done, the CarQuest, the Naples of the world have done a good job of filling some blank, filling some holes in there over the last 10, 20 years. So if I look at that 8.2 billion and I segment out, but the independent distributors on the right there shows you it's about 10% of the market what goes through independent distributors or what percentage of the parts. I don't know how that compares to those of you who have a business in this area, but maintenance is the biggest part. That would be belts and hoses and filters and exhaust parts and whatnot and ground engagement, bucket teeth and other hard parts like that. Tires, hydraulics, drive train components are the top types of parts typically sold by the independent distribution side of the business. So this is our outlook. This is actually just recently updated. We have the market basically being flat in 2020 compared to 2019, which normally you would say that's not very good. But if I had the aftermarket here for the truck aftermarket, you'd see that that's good. You don't want to be in that. That market is coming back, but it's taking a big hit. When you think about a lot of vehicles that aren't moving, school buses, for example, aren't really moving. So the construction market, not that there hasn't been pockets of problems, but for the most part, construction has gone on. We've got, I wouldn't say strong growth, but we've got growth going out there over the next five years. We look at this market about every six months. We'll make adjustments as we see it. It's been a bit of a difficult year to try to get a handle on what's going to happen down the road, but we're positive about the outlook for the aftermarket for construction equipment. And a big part of that is just keeping the equipment running because we already know what's out there and it's just aging that equipment. And if the equipment keeps running, we know how much it's going to consume. There'll be a few new pieces of new equipment. There'll be some old ones leaving, but for the most part, it's just aging that equipment, which is already out there in the marketplace and making sure the economy keeps chugging along. This is a kind of a different snapshot. This takes a look at percent changes by what product categories within that 8.2 billion. The green bars are the differences between what we size the market in 19 compared to 18. So 19 was a fairly good year where we had the market up four to five, 6%, depending on the product category, 4.2% total. So you can see here, for example, breaks was estimated to be up 5.6% in 19 compared to 18. Obviously 2020, not as good a year, but still a positive and we've got it up slightly, but we do have price in there. So if you take price out, it's basically down, but obviously not as strong as 2019, but not as bad as we're seeing in some of the other markets that we profile. So that's kind of our snapshot on where we see the economy, how we size the aftermarket and our outlook for the aftermarket. I believe, yes, that was my last chart. I very much appreciate your time. I look forward to your questions. There's my email address and phone number if you want to follow up with me on anything else. Bill, did you have any questions for me there? Or? John, I appreciate that so much. It doesn't appear that we have any questions that came in. You must have done an excellent job answering all the questions everybody had compared for. I'll take that reason, but I didn't lose everybody either. No, you know what? Actually, everybody stayed on the whole time. So how's that for a confidence booster? Rubber tracks. Chairman Scott would like to know. Rubber tracks. I'd have to break into our database to get down to a specific component, which I can't do, but I occasionally do get the question, does this include a track and a wheeled vehicles? For example, in the excavators, it includes both. So I know we have a much smaller, but the same on the skid steers. But we have both. And one last question here. Yeah, forecast. I'm sorry. Do you forecast forecast out? Yes, so that those last two slides were our five year outlook forecast. I didn't mention. So that was a roll up both by product category in total, but we have that down to the individual components. So if you're a manufacturer of widgets and you're wondering what our forecast is for widgets for the next five years, or just widgets for skid steers, for example, or just widgets in whatever vocation, we can break that down to that level of detail. I rolled it up to the last few slides, but we have a lot of details in those areas. All right. Well, you may be hearing from Mr. Scott shortly more on that rubber track topic. All right. Well, John, thank you so much for all of that. That was really thorough. Really appreciate your time today. No problem. And I really appreciate Michael from Perceptive Processing for answering today's session. Thanks again, Michael. Thank you, everybody. Appreciate the time. And if you have any questions, there's my contact information. Thank you. Thank you, John. All right. So just one final question and a couple of notes today. By the way, we asked if Chuck Norris would be joining us again for the conference, and it turns out he had a run-in with the deadly coronavirus. And when reached for comment on how it's doing, the coronavirus still said it was quarantining for a few more days. So shameless Chuck Norris joke there at the end. We do have one final question for you. You have seen a couple of videos on AED's annual summit, your association's annual meeting. And we're curious, what are your plans? So text us. Let us know. A, if we'll be there. B, we are undecided. C, we'll not be in attendance. Or D, what is summit? You can learn more at aedesummit.com. And trust me, if you don't know what I'm talking about, a member of my team will be in contact with you at some point this week. So looks like we've got a lot of folks who are looking forward to being there. We're looking forward to seeing you there. Folks are undecided. That's okay. Stay tuned for more information how you can participate virtually in that. And if you liked today's conference, let us know in the chat. We really want to know what you liked, what you'd like to see more of. Should we continue to offer this virtually next year and hopefully live as well? What's on your mind? How did you like the conference? And again, look us up on social media. We're on Instagram. We've got a great LinkedIn page. It's actually how we met our friends over at Crank. And keep an eye on your email for access to the presentations from today. We'll be getting that out shortly. And again, thank you to all the staff behind the scenes. And of course, to all of you out there in Zoom land, our members, you help make events like this possible. And I look forward to seeing you all in Las Vegas. what we can see. Why don't you tell your dreams to me, that you'll see what you dream. Close your eyes, girl. Look inside, girl. Let the sound take you away. If you stick around for an extra 10 minutes, we'll bring Mike up here to do some karaoke. Thank you.

construction-related economy

aftermarket demand

recession impact

construction market sectors

public health issues

equipment owners

equipment dealers

replacement parts