Well, good morning. This morning, I have the privilege of introducing a few of our members that are going to be speaking this morning. One will be Craig Drury, AED's Chairman and Vice President of Vermeer Canada, Rob Russo, formerly of the Canadian Press Ottawa, Bureau Chief and Washington Correspondents, and the CBC's Managing Editorial of the Parliamentary Bureau. And also with us today, Hugh Williams, President of Impact Public Affairs, and Kyle Larkin, Vice President of Public Affairs. So with that, I'd like to turn it over to our Chairman, Mr. Craig Drury. Thanks Mike. And thanks everyone for taking the time to participate today. I'm not going to take too much time today. I just want to just do some real quick highlights from some of my remarks that I made in my inaugural speech. And the first one is really acknowledging me as the first Canadian Chairman for the AED. And I think it's really important to use that as a representation of how important our relationship is with the U.S. and the U.S. with Canada. I spent some time talking about some facts around this, like it is a huge trade relationship that we frankly do not understand or really know how important it is. I think there's something like nine million jobs in the U.S. that is directly related to Canada-U.S. trade. So I'm excited that Rob is on here with us today, and I'm going to be really quick here so that he and Hugh can get going on what you're really here for. The second item that I would like to highlight as an initiative this year is to really use the AED. So for those of you who just go to the summit or maybe do a few things, really get engaged with it. This is our association. There's a lot of things that are in there that you can tweak to make your companies and therefore the families that work for your companies more successful. So really pay attention to how you can really leverage the AED. The third one, which I got a few looks at when I was in Vegas, but it's around the whole idea of how does environmental policy and particularly around carbon affect our industry. I'd like to move the conversation from whether or not climate change is happening or not. What I think is a reality, and maybe Rob, you could comment on this a little bit from a U.S.-Canadian perspective, but carbon policy is coming, whether we like it or not. And I think we need to leverage our expertise as an association to really understand how that's going to impact our businesses. And the fourth thing that I'm really excited about is to piggyback as a board off of the work that the foundation's doing around diversity. We're all struggling with bringing good people into this industry, and there are multiple different communities out there that we are not attracting. And the work that the foundation's doing, there's a report available on this that you should all reach out and get and read it and understand how our individual companies can move the needle in terms of bringing different people into our organization. So I'm really excited to be supporting that as well. So with that, I'm more than happy to pass this off to Mike and get Rob and Hugh going. Thank you, Greg. I appreciate it. And with that, I'll turn it over to Hugh Williams. Hugh, go right ahead. Thank you. Great. You know, I'll say, my name's Hugh Williams, I'm the President of Impact Public Affairs. You know, thrilled to be here. I know we'd all have loved to be together in Vegas, and Rob had been gracious enough to at least consider Vegas, but wise enough to predict that we wouldn't actually be in Vegas for a presentation like this. I'll say a couple of words off the top about AED and their special role here in Canada, but also there's the special Canada-U.S. role that Greg pointed out. First of all, congratulations to Greg for being the first Canadian chair of the organization. I think, you know, there's not many joint Canada-U.S. organizations that exist the way AED does, but it really speaks to the integrated nature of the North American economy. And Greg does a great job in recognizing that and also straddling the line that there's differences between the two countries politically, and, you know, Rob and I will have a chance to discuss that. One of the things that, you know, Brian's done as CEO is really make sure that the association is front and center on those Canada-U.S. conversations. I can remember introducing Brian to the, you know, one of the chairs of the Canada-U.S. committee, you know, Mr. McGinty, who's an MP here from Ottawa, who's very involved in Canada-U.S. relationships. We've had a special effort to make sure that we're reaching out to those MPs that want to nurture that relationship, and I think over the last 18 months with the vaccine donations coming from the states, the drive for, you know, for both countries to come out of recovery in terms of the pandemic, that's only highlighted the nature of the relationship. So I know, you know, personally, when I've witnessed, you know, Brian and the AED team talking to Canadian decision-makers, Canadian decision-makers appreciate that AED is a voice here in Canada, but in the states as well, and can help play a bridge going forward. And I think as we start to unpack some of the really difficult public policy decisions trade decisions, making sure that those voices on both sides of the border can kind of talk in harmony about policy will be important. I'm going to bring into the conversation now a good friend and, you know, just somebody I respect so much in terms of their journalistic credentials. Rob Russo, as was indicated by Mike Dexter, has really been a fixture here in Ottawa in terms of, you know, the journalistic beat. He's been a CBC editor and bureau chief for CBC here in Ottawa, which gave him responsibility, of course, for their mainline show, Power on Politics, but really shaping the national news agenda in many ways. And before that, it's almost arguable that he had a more important position, which was head of Canadian Press. Canadian Press is one of the most influential news bodies in Canada. They are the feeder for all of the news that goes to both radio, print, and of course, online platforms. And before that, served as the Washington correspondent for Canadian Press. Rob and I first met on the campaign trail, actually, so I got a chance to share the road seat with him many times and really understand what he knows. One of the things about Rob that is interesting, in addition to, you know, doing all kinds of commentary on CBC and, you know, serving as a sometimes at issue panelist on CBC, you know, Rob has an ability to get people to talk to him in Ottawa, to get the decision makers to talk to them. And he's always been interested in finding out what stories that are out there that the public maybe doesn't even know about because it's not on their radar screen, or that the government doesn't necessarily want them to know. So he's always got his news team digging in. Whenever I talk to other journalists today, and I mentioned Rob's name, there's just a real well of respect there. So I'm going to tease out from Rob, some of the themes about politics, we're going to start on the Canadian US relationship, as Greg kind of indicated, and then we'll bounce from there to talk about competitiveness, you know, the election, the advantages and disadvantages that each party faces. And then we'll be happy to take questions and answers as they come from folks across the country. So Rob, I'm going to start with the toughest question of all, will the Habs, I know you're diehard Habs fans, but will they come back to win the cup over Tampa Bay after last night's win? The most important question you're going to ask me today, of course, by thanking Mike Craig and the association for having me, I speak to a lot of groups, a lot of times they're just an early warning systems on where the economy is going. This association is where the economy is. When I see your equipment out there, I know people are working, I know taxes are being paid, and I'm hoping that that infrastructure is being left behind. That's going to make the economy better and spin off jobs for a long, long time. So thank you for having me. And I look forward to your questions and from learning from you. I want to thank you as well for joining me. Yes, we've known each other a long time. But Hugh has managed the rare feat of actually garnering respect from people on all sides of the political aisle. This is a partisan town. That's a remarkable feat. And to answer your question, I want to thank Mayor Jane Castor of Tampa. She's a mayor of Tampa, and she has breathed new life into the monster of the Montreal Canadiens by summoning one of the Tampa Bay's lightning bolts just before midnight last night, breathing new life into the monster that is Montreal. She wanted the cup to come back to Tampa. It's coming back. It's going to stay there for the seventh game and Montreal will win then. I like it. I thought it was interesting, and this is kind of a bridge to the Canada-U.S. relations. Prime Minister Trudeau tweeted at President Biden that, you know, let's have a side bet on the hockey game. And President Biden responded, you're on, pal. You know, those two have a close relationship. And I know that the prime minister, and if you talk about this a little bit, had invited Biden at the end of his term as vice president to spend time in Canada. They have a good relationship, but that doesn't necessarily seem to translate into all things being smooth on that front. No, look, whenever Democrats come in, it's harder for Canada to actually deal with some of the persistent irritants in the relationship, and those irritants have been around for a long, long time. Lumber pipelines are among them, dairy problems as well. There's one big, urgent kind of acute crisis right now that I'm going to come back to in a second, but the relationship at the top can have a remarkable impact on solving some of these problems, on dealing with urgent things that come across. When there is that relationship at the top, I'm thinking President Clinton, I'm thinking Reagan Mulroney, those people achieve things, particularly for Canada, that we normally would not have achieved. When you get the President of the United States to weigh in on the eve of a referendum on whether or not Canada is going to break in, as Clinton did in 1995, that was historic. When you get the President of the United States to sign acid rain treaties, the way Mulroney did with George Bush, the elder, that had an enduring impact on Canada and on our forests. That relationship, when it works at that level, we can do great things together, apart from the enduring irritants. When it doesn't, there are real problems, and we saw that with Trump-Trudeau. There's some people who say, and I think there's something to it, Trudeau had the misfortune of working with Trump, Harper had the misfortune of working with Obama, those people didn't get along. When you get this kind of symmetry, it's Canadian kismet at the Biden-Trudeau level. It's interesting, we'll unpack the Trump relationship here for a second. Trump caused a lot of trade warning signs, certainly when he threatened the automotive tariffs and did hit Canada with aluminum and steel tariffs. One of the things that we saw from the Prime Minister's office here, from the Prime Minister himself, and certainly I had direction from ministers from the Prime Minister's office, do what you can with Canadian stakeholders and American stakeholders who depend on Canada to try to repair that relationship. How important is that relationship at a political and business level in Canada? You've been in Washington, you know how important it is for Canada to understand what's going on in the US and be able to deal with it. One of the great joys of being in Canada, or being in Washington and covering the Canadian beat, is that no other reporter covers it. There are great swaths of the US government, at state, at defence, at commerce, at trade, in the White House, on the National Security Council, who are dedicated to this relationship. But they won't lurch into action unless there is direction from the White House. And that direction won't come unless there is a good personal relationship between the two chief executives of the government. And we're in that situation now. There is some frustration in Canada, without a doubt, that the spinoffs from that relationship have begun to flow. And I can tell you there's some frustration in Washington, both in Congress and at the White House, because they're making a big ask right now of Canada to reopen our border and we are dragging our feet. There's an effort going on right now. I thought it was very interesting to see the Blue Jays, and they're just one sports organization, making an ask to allow their teams to come in. Those teams are like the canary in the coal mine. People are going to watch to see if that happens. I doubt that it will. There is a sense around the Prime Minister right now that they can in no way allow more generalized immigration across the border or border crossings until we know whether or not there's going to be a fourth wave. And I can tell you the worst sort of nightmare scenario for the Trudeau government is they go ahead and accede to the demands from President Biden, Senator Schumer in New York and others along the border to open up the border to more generalized border crossings. That fourth wave is unleashed in September, October, just as we're heading to a probable fall election. Yeah, it's interesting. The U.S. border issue is one that is red hot right now in Ottawa. There's a lot of reporters chasing that, really questioning the Prime Minister at his press events as to why you have this disparity, people being able to fly over, but there's lack of a plan for people to be able to drive over. I don't think the average person who doesn't live in a border community understands how fluid those borders usually are on a daily basis. We have nurses that flow across into Detroit and families on both sides of the border. I've been talking to Chuck Schumer's office, also to Congressman Brian Higgins and other congressional leaders personally about this, who are really quite surprised that Canada has held the line on the border because everything's free-flowing and open in the U.S. How much of a risk is it that we have a hardening of the border going forward for Canada? Because any of that hardening of that trade relationship makes it more expensive for people who are buying parts from the states, trying to do business with manufacturers in the states. I hear a lot of concern among parliamentarians in the background that they're worried that this 16, 17-month closure could lead to a really hardening of what is one of our greatest assets, that open border. If you want to look for a good example of the differences along the border, just look at the infrastructure plans of both Prime Minister Trudeau and Joe Biden. Biden's hasn't passed. It looks like a more modest package is going to pass, but they actually get money out the door in the United States, whereas here it can take years and we don't even get modest amounts out the door. It doesn't matter what stripe the party is. Look, I think what you're going to see, if we see it at all, is a kind of a pilot project, perhaps with the Blue Jays, where they promise, I think right now they're promising, to allow teams in, in a bubbled environment. And if that works, you might see something more general, but I'm told that the resistance isn't necessarily at Health Canada. The resistance is the Prime Minister himself. He does not want to be in the middle of a campaign and then have blame laid for him for a fourth wave. And it sort of makes a reality of the old slogan in politics, it's not how you play the game, it's how you lay the blame. And if blame was laid at the feet of the Prime Minister in the middle of his campaign, that could be disastrous, because he has a kind of a modest record of achievement in terms of what he's done so far, but his greatest achievements are vaccines, are getting the population vaccinated. And if that's put at risk, if that achievement is dulled or blunted, that puts his re-election campaign in the grave doubt. In discussions I've had with the Prime Minister's office, you know, I've made the case that they also have to be careful not to, you know, they're obviously watching that, that element of discussion in terms of the potential fourth wave. But I've made the case to them, they also have to be careful not to be overly cautious and really, you know, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They've done a great job on the vaccines, but, you know, now at some point we have to accept the success on that front, but we'll see what comes out of that. Let's talk about infrastructure for a second, because I think that's key to every AED member. You know, we've seen, you know, XL Pipeline cancelled, so there's obviously some trade irritants that exist between Canada and the U.S., certainly U.S. congressional leaders, Senate leaders were in favor of that program rolling ahead. But infrastructure money has been something that Canada hasn't done well historically, to your point. I'll give credit to, you know, Kyle Larkin on our team at IMPACT, you know, has really put AED at front and center with the consulting engineers, with the Construction Association of Canada, pushing for the actual infrastructure money to be, you know, boots on the ground, money actually out the door. And there's a long history of Canada of making announcements and re-announcement of infrastructure money, but the money not flowing. Some of that's provincial, federal, municipal dynamics. You know, is there a solution to that, or are we going to be doomed forever? I don't know that there's a solution, given the amount of regulation that we have in our federal system. I think that a unitary state or a system like the United States makes it a lot easier for money to be spent, once they agree on how the money is to be spent. In our system, it's just nettlesome. It's more difficult, it's slower. And as a result, I mean, all you have to do is, you know, cross the border at any point and you go from really nice blacktop on the interstate system to often some bone-jarring rides on the way in. So it's endemic. You know, I think that the change on this, and the change on even something like climate change and spending on climate change, is going to come from the United States. There are going to be forces unleashed in infrastructure spending in the United States once any package gets through that will put tremendous pressure on Canada to get its act together that way. There will be opportunities missed on that side of the border. Some of those opportunities will spill into our side of the border as well. There's also going to be, it's abundantly clear, some sort of fiscal dividend, fiscal windfall. The economy is not just spring-loaded. They've underestimated a bunch of things economic forecasters have, including the governments, as to how much money is going to begin flowing in terms of revenue, how much economic growth there's going to be in Canada. And governments, once they get money, even though we're kind of awash in debt right now, have a real tendency to spend it. And the role the media is going to be in, of the opposition, is to make sure that that's spent wisely. But we are going to do far, far better coming out of this COVID recession than people have anticipated. What we've got to do is look at the price of oil and look at our currency. We are a petro-currency. We're back above $0.81 today. And the reason for that is oil is above $75, and people are now suggesting it could go to $80 as well. There's going to be money there. Politicians don't like to keep that money in their pockets, they like to spend it. And that, I think, will unleash some of the forces that have been held back by regulation in Canada. Yeah, I think one of the interesting things is that there's also a divergence in this country between the West and central Canada in terms of how freewheeling the economy should be and how much blame to put on Ottawa for things. As you see the federal-provincial mix over the next little while, how do you see that unfolding? And then maybe from there we'll jump into the federal election. Well, in Canada, we tend to like to have counterweights. If there's a conservative government in Ottawa, we like to elect liberals provincially, or New Democrats. If there's a liberal government in Ottawa, we like to elect conservative governments provincially. And I think that's probably likely to continue, which means there's not a lot of working together a lot of the time. There is a great deal of political capital to be made running against Ottawa. And there's a reason why Doug Ford's government here in Ontario took a lot of money and spent it in some of the most expensive advertising real estate in Canadian television by buying time during the Stanley Cup playoffs between Toronto and Montreal to fire a couple of shots at the Trudeau government, even though they're not the official opposition, they're the opposition in Ontario. They're doing that because they know what's coming. Trudeau is going to run against Doug Ford in Ontario, and he's shown in the past that he can score political points that way. So I think that that's endemic to our federal system. Yeah, it's interesting. You almost never imagine a scenario in the States where a presidential candidate would run against a governor. We have a case where the prime minister spent the last election running against Doug Ford and doing it quite successfully. And I think that it's probably game on for that again. Donald Trump did pretty well campaigning against governors, including some of his own strike. But he was not your usual president. Yeah, and he definitely ran against the big city mayors, Democratic mayors as well in terms of his approach down in the States. So Ottawa is abuzz with election speculation, and it's almost a national sport here in the capital. I think that there's a lot of the pieces being put in place for an election to take place. We're seeing staffers who had government political jobs, leaving those jobs to go over to the campaign. You're starting to see the opposition use their campaign studio and kind of practice their campaign stump speeches as Erin O'Toole closed down Parliament. You're seeing MPs resign from their cabinet positions or step down. They're announced they're not running again. And certainly the machinery of the Liberal government is up and running. I hear from neighbors that work in Elections Canada that they're ready to go. So how do you see this? There's some talk of an early snap election call in August, and others are thinking it might be a little bit later on. What do you see in the crystal ball? First of all, I often start by saying my predictions are made to make the weather forecasters' predictions look good. My crystal ball is cracked. But if you believe everybody in this town, then there shouldn't even be a campaign. It's over. Trudeau has won. He's going to be elected with a majority. It's going to be really easy. O'Toole is a stumbling, bumbling no-goodnik. And I can tell you that I've stopped dyeing my hair grey to try and give myself dignity. This grey hair is now earned. I've been covering elections now since 1984. And in every single election that I covered, the polls going in did not look like the polls on voting day. So whatever you're hearing now about what's going to happen, I guarantee you that there will be a different result. It may be that Trudeau is elected with a landslide, but they won't look like they look today. Things change. The old saying about campaigns matter is actually true. So why do I say it's not in the bag for Trudeau? Because there are three or four really important things going on in Canada right now that make a campaign unpredictable. There is a certain malaise in Canada, I would say. When you hear about the Prime Minister saying, don't just celebrate Canada Day, reflect on the wrongs that we've done historically, that's something that gets at a fundamental pillar of Canadian society. When you see statues of Sir John A. Macdonald being brought down in his hometown of Kingston, Ontario, and then in other places across the country, we're talking about our founding father there, In effect, people are re-examining and asking some very, very tough questions and people are uncomfortable on both sides of that issue. You're looking at statues of the monarchy, another founding pillar of Canadian society being brought down. We have the royal family being treated as racist as well. So there are these three or four fundamental pillars of Canadian society that are being shaken loose a little bit and people are asking themselves some tough questions about who we are and that could cut both ways for the Prime Minister. Yet the other reality is that Trudeau is no longer the bright, shiny object he was in 2015. He's now a drag on his own party's fortunes. He polls below his party. He has what's called significant negatives. In other words, he's more unpopular than he is popular. So there are real question marks and as far as I'm concerned, things that you could exploit if you were an opposition leader. We were talking about the environment and a carbon tax earlier. I think a carbon tax is now baked in. Canadians have accepted it and when the leader of the Conservative Party comes in with his own version, they've accepted it. But that doesn't mean that Trudeau is free and clear. Emissions have actually gone up under Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. One of the things that if I were an opposition leader that I would try to exploit is we are not ready. We weren't ready for COVID. We weren't ready for climate change. I would come up with a mitigation and preparation plan and that mitigation and preparation plan could involve the association. We need cooling centres. We weren't prepared for 500 people to die in BC in one or two days, even though we all have been talking about climate change happening. So there are some vulnerabilities there for Trudeau. That doesn't mean that he doesn't have significant advantages and that significant advantage comes in the form of an enfeebled opposition leader right now. I don't know if you want to ask me about that or get into that at all. Yeah, I mean, I'll just maybe build on your comments about unexpected elections. I think it's useful to remind people that in the 2015 election in which the Liberals won a majority government, the current Prime Minister was healthfully in third place coming into that election and everybody was talking about Prime Minister Mulcair. I think that I'm a great believer that surprises happen in politics. There's the issue that we don't know that's coming. Today's polls will be a roller coaster for sure. And even if you look at the last election, I mean, there were so many bombshells that took place during that election that would have been completely unexpected and could have derailed other candidates. It's quite amazing that they survived the last campaign. So I think it is interesting. I would also remind people that nobody predicted Stephen Harper would be Prime Minister for nine years. I mean, I remember bringing people in to meet him and they were like, this guy's going to be Prime Minister. Nobody seems like their Prime Minister until their Prime Minister, I think, is part of that dynamic. And also, you need to be vaulted into that kind of place by daily media coverage during a campaign to be kind of road tested. Is this person a campaign or a potential Prime Minister? So let me ask you this. Aaron O'Toole, I mean, he's had a tepid start, I think would be the polite way to put it. How do you see his strengths and weaknesses or potential advantages coming into a campaign? Well, there's a guy who, if you believe polls, would never have been leader too, right? I'm with Diefenbaker on polls. They're for incontinent dogs, right? But they're valuable, but we in the media tend to treat them superficially and not properly. But look, I think O'Toole's biggest problems, his most formidable foes, lie within the heart of his own party. There are people now who are enraged at Aaron O'Toole within the Conservative Party. They believe that he is a phony, that he ran as a right-wing Conservative and is not a right-wing Conservative. They point to the carbon tax, his conversion on the carbon tax as proof of that. They point to the way he's treated Derek Sloan, a hard right member of his own caucus. They also don't think that he is particularly sensitive to their needs. There's lots of grumbling in the Conservative caucus about how the carbon tax plan for Conservatives was unveiled. A lot of them didn't find out about it until it was actually announced. So there's that. There are also regional pulls on the Conservative Party. There's a maverick movement in Western Canada, in your home province of Alberta, that might not win any seats. Jay Hill, who's leading it, has said we might not win any seats, but we're going to prevent Conservatives from being elected. And if those scorned polls that we talked about are to be believed, there might be two or three Liberals re-elected in the province of Alberta because of that. And these are the kinds of things that make it very, very difficult for a Conservative leader. They're often fighting their own battles internally rather than fighting themselves. And I think the great genius of Stephen Harper, if one were going to ask me for his own most important legacy point, it would be that he made the Conservatives, the United Party, made them electable again and gave Canadians an alternative that way. But that's in real danger right now. So he faces that problem. It's an identity crisis. They don't seem to know who he is. He doesn't seem to know who he is either. And he has a lot of road to hoe. But as you said, he's going to be on the air every day. This government will be probably getting close to the end of its sixth and beginning of its seventh year in office once the vote is actually held. Lots of nicks, lots of scratches. And as we found out in 2019, lots of skeletons that are raffling in closets as well. That's interesting. I think one of the huge advantages for the prime minister is the fact that the Conservatives are the fourth choice amongst all parties of voters under 30. And I think that's a hard place to come from for Mr. O'Toole to come back into a position of strength for those younger voters, which make up a large sector. They don't traditionally poll well there. I think what's interesting to watch in O'Toole is he has decided to be the defender of traditional Canada, of the Sir John A. Canada. He has decided to take up that torch. And what I think we're seeing is an attempt to consolidate the Conservative vote at a minimum. That's an issue that I think Conservatives will rally around. And voters over 40 would tend to rally around that as well. So it'll be interesting to see if that helps blunt some of the opposition that he sees among his own supporters. Yeah. And I think it's interesting because there is a lot of debate around how much reflection people should have been doing over this period of time versus the celebration of the country. I think, and you and I talked a few days ago about this, one of the geniuses of Prime Minister Chrétien, of course, who was Prime Minister, Liberal Prime Minister for 13 years, was that he always talked about Canada being the greatest country in the world to live in. And I feel that way about the country. And I think we're very, very lucky to live here. Are we perfect? No. Have we had a perfect history? No. Is there work to do? I think so. But there's something inherently important about, in a leadership position, not talking the country down. And we saw a lot of examples in the House of political leaders, you know, talking down the country. So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out on the campaign trail for sure. Just ask Jimmy Carter and his sweater about the importance of that kind of messaging. We all remember in 1979, he went and gave a speech to Americans, put on a sweater in front of a fireplace to let people know they should turn down their thermostats and not be so miserable. And he looked miserable doing it. And along came a guy promising a new morning for America. And people love optimism. Yes. They want to believe in something. And they don't necessarily want somebody holding a torch of kind of dour, desperate desolation. Yeah. And I think, you know, maybe we'll close with this. And I'll just invite those that are listening to use the Q&A function to ask a question, Liz or Mike, who can moderate that for us, that would be great. But let me, you know, pause with this question. You know, you're a reporter who's always been very sensitive to what's happening on the ground, what's happening in real Canada, as opposed to the Ottawa bubble. You've often talked about the importance of understanding, you know, what the what the real business community is doing. And what's the challenge of the business community going going forward to break through to the message in Ottawa long term? I mean, do you see any hope ever that that, you know, we'll have a more business minded capital? It depends on what your issue is. And we've discussed and discussed this in the past. Look, the Liberals are reelected. The business community's traditional ask has been for less regulation and lower taxes. That's an agenda that's just not going to fly with a Liberal government, this iteration of the Liberal Party, because it has changed. I mean, if Stephen Harper's genius was to unite the right, Justin Trudeau's genius has been to unite the left. And as long as he's Prime Minister, it's going to be very, very difficult to change the traditional business asks agenda of lower taxes, less regulation. But there are areas where where the business agenda and the Liberals agenda do come together. You know, I think about environmental cleanup. I think about the industries that are going to lead the way and should be leading the way in the first half of this century and environmental cleanup is a big one. I think about AI, I think about smart cars. Certainly, the change in the automobile industry is already happening, but it won't be driven from Canada. It will almost certainly be driven from the United States. And so I would say that your American members are going to have an outsized influence on what policy looks like, no matter who the Prime Minister is going to be in Canada over the next 10 or 12 years. Yeah, and I think I'll just build on that auto industry. I mean, it is remarkable. And I think it's a little bit of a canary in a mineshaft for anybody in the heavy equipment business or anything to do with the transportation sector at all. The government announced last week with with, you know, it was obviously a campaign style announcement with with several ministers involved. You know, there have been officials working on a zero emission vehicle policy, you know, going electric vehicle policy and moving moving forward with that. But then, you know, really, without any notice to officials, you know, the as I say, campaign style ministers came out and announced that were the deadline, or the new target for getting Canada to 100% electric vehicles is 2035. And that's, you know, 19 years, years, years away. And I know the auto industry is bringing in I think it's next year, they're gonna have 130 electric vehicle models that you know, they're, you know, Ford has transitioned to the to the creation of the F-150 electric, which is revolutionary, Canada's putting a lot of money into the the overall scope of electric manufacturing here in Canada, I was talking to Jerry Dias, who runs the union, they're all in on that strategy in terms of making that that transition. But I think on the other side of that equation, you have Eric regular from the Globe and Mail pointing out that, you know, that this borders on being delusion delusional. So you know, somebody is going to be right about this. But I think the important thing is that, that you look at the where the Biden administration has gone on this, where G7 countries have gone on this, there's a transition happening towards alternate elements of modes of transportation and, you know, and their carbon footprint. And I think anybody who's involved in this business, as Craig kind of started us on has to have an eye towards, you know, no matter where you view this on the on the scientific spectrum, it's happening as a business reality today, and you need as a sector to be ready for it. Did you did you notice the towers in Calgary swang last week when you made that? Well, I think it's somewhat ironic how much we depend on the petro, on, as you say, the petrodollar and that and the energy sector to be out of leading in that in that domain. And also, you know, the line five discussions, you know, if if line five is to get shut down, you know, I think people in Ontario would be, you know, shocked at the impact on their on their lives, both for transportation and work and heating their homes. There's an issue that will be solved at the executive level. If that's going to be solved, it's going to be solved because there is a very good relationship between the two of them. It requires great sort of diplomatic dexterity, but it requires more than anything else. A relationship of trust and favour, favoured changes, actually. And I think that's one that will be called in there. So I'm going to go to the Q&A session now, and we have a question from Darren Riley, who's asked the question, should the Liberals achieve a majority? Are there any other potential legislative changes that we as AED members might be impacted on beyond the focus on on carbon? I think I'll take the first stab at this, Robin, and maybe you can build on this. I think, you know, one of the big challenges that we're going to see, you know, should there be a liberal majority? Is that gives, you know, the this current iteration of the Liberal Party really carte blanche to move on measures that might not be helpful for small business to grow, might not be sensitive to that you've seen in their in their platform and in the budget that they've moved on the luxury tax. So that's allowed them to, you know, target more affluent Canadians. So I think, you know, one of the important things for AED to keep an eye on is to make sure that there's still an environment in finance that allows small to medium sized businesses to be part of the economy and not be too restrictive in terms of that kind of production. I think one of the positives that we'll be able to build on, and we tease this out a little bit, is the infrastructure. This government, I think, understands infrastructure rolling out the door has been somewhat of a challenge, as it has been historically for every government. But I think they understand that to adapt to the new economy and also even to be ready for climate change, we've got to focus on infrastructure. But Rob, feel free to take a run at that. I think, you know, past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. And if you look at the Liberals' legislative achievements so far, they are very, very modest. And when you look at where they did try to get involved in taxation in any significant way, they did some risk backpedaling, and that was on the small business tax very early in their time. So I'm not sure I would fear it so much. I use as an example, the daycare announcement, which for many Liberals is the centerpiece, or supposed to be the centerpiece of their campaign. Look for any kind of speech promoting the daycare announcement. It's not there. The Prime Minister didn't mention it on Canada Day when he was listing the virtues of his government. And why not? Because it requires participation by the provinces. And the provinces have recently been quite clear with the Liberals and with the Prime Minister's office. They don't trust the Liberals to pony up the 50-50 dollars. You don't see any Premier saying, I'm in. You've seen the Premier of Quebec, Legault, saying, we'll take the money because we've already got that. Thank you very much. And we'll do with it as we wish. So, you know, there's an example of what was supposed to be a bold initiative that seems to be stagnant right now. So look, I think what I would look for is environmental initiatives. I don't know how bold they're going to be. But I think that there are opportunities for clever businesses to harmonize their agendas with this government's agenda when it comes to environmental cleanup, clean energy, these sorts of things. There are openings there. And they're your friends on that issue as well. So that's where I would look to go. I would also suspect that whether the Prime Minister gets a majority or doesn't, he won't be around for more than a couple of years. Let's not forget that this Liberal Party was dead in 2013. Justin Trudeau did not want to be the leader of the Liberal Party. They basically came to him and said, the party's dead. If you don't jump in, it won't survive. Your name is magic. And so he jumped in that way. I don't know that this is something he wants to do for a long time. I'm pretty sure he doesn't. I think he has ambitions elsewhere. And I think he's going to try and realize those ambitions a couple of years after a majority mandate, or he won't have a choice if there's another minority mandate. The leadership will begin essentially the night of a minority mandate return. You know, it's interesting. There are some Liberal cabinet ministers that I think have been very pro-business. I think Minister Champagne over at Innovation is a great example of that. We understand the need to keep, and I think still does, keeps construction boots in his car. So when he sees a Canada project, he pulls them out of the trunk and visits. You know, one of the AED success stories in the package of government supports, you know, really was the fact that, you know, when governments first started looking at supports, particularly the wage subsidy support, they didn't want to include any kind of business that had, you know, significant capital and they wanted to use capital as a measure of the business. So obviously when you have a capital intensive business or capital, you know, a large footprint, you know, you'd be excluded for that. So I just think the fact that we were able to pivot this government to have a broad Q's program that included all AED members, that included, you know, the heart of the business community overall was a success. And I think those types of challenges are going to be on the horizon, really, no matter who's in government going forward, because, you know, finance, you know, the officials at finance have a viewpoint that they want to turn off the taps as much as possible and, you know, certainly narrow any kind of tax relief as much as possible to exclude as many groups as possible. And I think fighting for tax fairness will be important. Craig, I want to bring you into the conversation. Any questions that you'd want to have pointed at Rob from where you sit as chair? Yeah. Yeah. Just, I don't know if it's a question or just looking for your thoughts, Rob, but, you know, when I went to Vegas, it was my first attempt at going across the border. I drove across at Buffalo and the spirit of that border crossing was 180 degrees of what I'm used to. They did not want me there at all. Like it was, it felt almost aggressive and it was not welcoming and it was unnerving, frankly. So the concept of, like, we are getting goods back and forth because of the over the border through COVID. I think we've done a good job as making that work. But expertise is not flowing across the border right now. The people piece, we are really missing in our business right now. And I'm just curious on the essential word, quotations, of crossing the border. Do you see that softening at least in the next 30 days, let's say, or I assume there's going to be a July 21st announcement again as we go through this monthly look. Just wondering on your comments on the expertise part of getting across the border. I wish I had better news for you. But I can guarantee you that there won't be a softening, that there will be no movement at all before a campaign. And that's a decision that the Prime Minister himself has taken. There are people beneath him who are saying he must consider one or two pilot projects and to see how they work to try and sort of field test or fire test a potential loosening of the border. But the health risk is seen to be significant, given the low rates of vaccination in many US states. And the political risk is everything. And right now, the Prime Minister and everybody in the Liberal Party only have eyes for a renewed mandate. That's the only thing that they're thinking about. Anything else would put in jeopardy everything that they've worked for. So I don't think we're going to see any significant movement. Maybe a pilot project involving one of the professional sports teams working in a bubble. But nothing before my suggested prediction for an election date, which is the 25th of October. Yeah, and I'll put out a few things there on that, Craig, because I think you're exactly right. That attitude amongst border guards working both ways has been really tough on the business traveller who, in a lot of ways, is essential. Certainly, the auto industry is an example. Getting technical expertise across the border during this time has been hit and miss. They've been very vocal about that. Flavio Volpe from the automotive parts makers, Brian Kingston from the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association. We need that expertise to be able to move across the border. I can tell you from almost an accidental conversation with Minister Blair outlining the current plan on this, it is that they went through yesterday's announcement, which was the phase one to make it easier for fully vaccinated Canadians to come back without a quarantine. He intimated that there's a plan for August to allow fully vaccinated US citizens to come across who have a PCR test within 72 hours in addition to the double vaccination and then have to take a rapid test from there. And then it'd be a third phase after Labor Day. I also know from talking to officials that they've got briefing books upon briefing books and 15 different scenarios to open it up. But it all comes down to, as Rob says, the political decision from the Prime Minister's office is will they pull the trigger on some of these things. The pressure is intense from the Americans, but that also doesn't play badly for the Prime Minister. I think the Prime Minister learned from his father, it's not a bad thing to run against the Americans. And they're watching the polls closely on this. But I think as a business organization, you know, AED, but all the way across the board, parent beating with the Chamber of Commerce have all, you know, raised their voice on that. And I think, you know, you can look for Kyle and I to be front and center with the AED team on that very issue, that we cannot have a hardening of the border. We've got to get that expertise going forward. Otherwise, AED members here will really, they'll be a whittling away of our business over the long term. I'd like to ask Craig if that was a recent experience that he had at the U.S. border. And if not, has he gone back since then? I would imagine the American border officials might be a little bit more welcoming just based on the desire from U.S. governors, northern senators, congressmen to get that border open. Yeah, that was right around the May 2, 4 weekend. It was going down to the AED summit in Vegas. And so the Americans weren't happy to see you? Is that right? No, no. And it had nothing to do with COVID. It was more around why I was going. Like, as soon as you become essential and say you're essential, then you need to say, then they start, the questions start coming up. Okay, why are you essential? What do you do? You know, all those kinds of immigration rules that come in. And I wasn't prepared for those. Like I normally don't need to be, right? When you cross the border. So it was just a very different experience for sure. Interesting. Yeah, it is going to be an interesting time that way. Well, I think that this is probably a good place for us to wrap. We promised the members that we would use the best part of 45 minutes but not run into the hour. I want to give Mike Dexter a chance to wrap up here. And Mike, thank you for having us on. We really appreciate working with AED. I think Kyle is dogged in his pursuit of the AED agenda here in Ottawa, working with Daniel in Washington and that close collaboration between us and the AED Washington office I think is essential. So thank you for having us on. Rob, I want to thank you for making yourself available during a decent day for golf here in Ottawa. And I know that hopefully you'll get a chance to play later on today while the rest of us toil away. Over to you, Mike, to close us out. You're muted, Mike. It's 2021. That's the saying of the year. I actually prefer Mike muted. I'm not sure if others do. You probably do, right? Yeah, so does Craig. So Hugh, thank you. Rob, thank you. And Mr. Drury, thank you all very much. I really appreciate it. And for those who are on, this is being recorded. If you'd like to listen to it later, you can. With that, I'd like to thank you guys all again. I appreciate your time. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me. I'll be more than happy to answer them. With that, everybody have a great and safe day. Thanks, guys. Thanks, everybody. Good to see you, Craig. Thank you.

AED Chairman

Craig Drury

Canada-US relationship

trade opportunities

job opportunities

engagement

environmental policy

industry adaptation

diversity initiatives