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Canadian Economic Update
Canadian Economic Update
Canadian Economic Update
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Bob Collins from BuildForce Canada. Carl Larkin from Impact will introduce them a little bit more. But before I turn it over to Carl, I'd like to let those know that who are live with us that you may submit questions during the webinar via the question on tab at the bottom of your screen. This webinar will also be recorded so you can watch it or re-watch it on demand at your convenience. And one other plug I'd like to do is, for those who are on, as you know, we have to do everything virtual these days. We have chosen to do leadership virtual August 19th and August 20th. For those who are interested, please feel free to contact me. And great program to do for our members. And with that, I will turn it over to Kyle. Thanks, Mike. I'll just do a very quick introduction. Right beside me on my Zoom screen, I have Bill Ferreira, who's the Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. Bill Ferreira was also the Vice President of Public Affairs at the Canadian Construction Association prior to joining BuildForce Canada. And correct me if I'm wrong, Bill, but I think you were at CCA for seven years or over a decade? 10 years, yeah. 10 years, perfect. And we're also joined by Bob Collins, who will be leading the presentation today. He's the Senior Economist with BuildForce Canada. For those of you who might not know, BuildForce Canada is the leading organization in Canada for labor market information, specifically targeted towards the construction sector. So Bob, Bill, please take it away. Now, Kyle, I have to share my screen, I guess. So let's give this a shot. Yeah, give it a shot. If it doesn't work, I can help out. Sure. And I need to get that up to full screen. Is that, everybody seeing the? Yeah, it looks good. Excellent. Thanks, Bob. I'll move to the next slide, Bill, and then you're gonna do some opening remarks and then we'll dig in. Yep. Thank you. Thank you for providing us with the opportunity to present to you some of the preliminary findings that we're finding regarding the impact of COVID-19 so far on the economy and what our investment projections are for the next couple of years. This is by no means going to be a full forecast. This is only the investment data that you will be seeing today that we have been able to glean so far. And we will be doing a full forecast, which will be coming out in the early part of 2021, which will provide a lot more detailed labor market analysis. For those of you who don't know, BuildForce is an industry funded organization. We are made up of a variety of stakeholders, including owners that are procuring construction, as well as labor providers and also contractor associations across the country. We do, as Kyle mentioned, provide annual labor market analysis, reflecting what we are seeing across the country. We work collectively with our labor market information committees that are drawn from a variety of stakeholders, again, from those key constituent groups, but others, including colleges as well and provincial governments. And what we do is we develop our information and then we validate that information with industry, obviously seeking input at every stage while we are collecting the information to ensure that the information that we are seeing in modeling is actually reflective of what industry is seeing on the ground. In terms of the process for this year, we are probably a little bit later than normal, in part because of COVID-19 that has caused us to have to push back some of our modeling because the situation is currently so fluid. So we will be looking at beginning our macroeconomic analysis in the fall, followed by our validation meetings occurring sometime in December. The actual 2021-2030 annual report will be coming out sometime in late February, early March. It's unfortunate that it is going to be as late as it is, but given the fluidity right now in the marketplace, trying to rush the development of the forecast would be a mistake on our part because we might actually overlook some important things, market trends that may be occurring. So we're giving ourselves a little bit of time to make sure that we can accurately capture the recovery, also the impact of stimulus on the economy, as well as any other new trends that might be emerging as a result of COVID-19. And with that, I will turn it over to Bob Collins. The only thing I would say before I close is our forecasts are only as good as the inputs we receive from industry. So I would certainly encourage all of you that have an interest in obtaining and participating in the development of these outlooks to get in touch with us. We would love to have you on our labor market information committees. We have one in each province. And as I said, well, you may not, trying to understand the labor market situation in the construction industry may not seem like something that would be pertinent to your business, but certainly trying to understand the investment trends and the market trends would, I think, be something that you would benefit from. And we, of course, would love to hear what you are seeing in the marketplace, because it is really important because you're such a leading indicator of it. When you're busy, then that means that the construction industry is busy. So I would certainly ask that you give some consideration to joining our labor market information committees. And you can either do that by getting in touch with me directly, or Bob Collins, or through Kyle, or Mike. And with that, I will turn it over to Bob. Thanks, Bill. I guess, you know, these are interesting times. It's, you never know where to start, but let's start with some of the obvious stuff that, you know, is well-documented. In terms of the labor market, which is one of the early indicators that we can get on a monthly basis, we saw that by the time we came to the end of February and into March, things were rapidly changing. Between February and March, through March and April, in two months, we lost in the order of 250,000 jobs. A little bit different in terms of they were told to go home. So it's a different dynamic than, say, back in 2009 recession. Unemployment rate increased significantly from February about 8% to 20%. Now, on the positive side, and we started looking at the labor market numbers for May and June, we saw most of those jobs recovered back. We saw the unemployment rate cut in half from 20 down to just, you know, around 10%. But the more important indicator is to look at where we were, where we are this year compared to last year. So June of last year, we're still 7% below. We expect that to continue to improve in July as the economies continue to improve and open up. And we also look at, in terms of the unemployment rate, 2019 was a pretty solid year. I think on average, we were about 5% unemployment rate, and now we're looking at 10. So we're still, you know, still up there in the sense. So, you know, it's very difficult in terms of how we do this dynamic. As Bill had indicated, we go out to our provincial committees. One of the most important pieces that we have in our analysis is what we call the tracking of major projects, big drivers of the economies and construction activity. And, you know, so the committees were telling us what they're seeing, whether there's been shifts in the projects, and clearly there were for the first part of the year. And there's some provinces where projects are still starting to get back up to where they were, you know, this time last year. And that's gonna continue to unfold through the rest of the year. But as we crunch the numbers, and as Bill also indicated, you know, it's very fluid. We'll be crunching these numbers repeatedly over the next few months as new indicators become available. We're looking at residential construction to fall about 7.2%. Probably a little bit slower to come back, you know, getting back to pre-COVID than I'll say by 2019 levels, if we use that as a benchmark. Probably by, you know, 2022, late 2022, we might see activity getting up back to where they were in 2019. Non-residential construction, we're projected to go down nationally at about 7.4% this year. Expecting a quicker rebound. There's a long list of projects as we look across the country. But some markets are gonna most likely remain muted. And a key one here is the commercial market down around 13% relative to the overall non-residential construction at 7.4%. Key drivers will be getting some of the big major heavy engineering construction projects on stream. Institutional civil construction are expected to remain strong. You know, there are risks to the extent that the government at all levels can retain the capacity to fund those projects. So there are many risks. I'll come back to close with the risks that we see going forward as we continue to. So the first round of meetings we had in June, early June with the committees, our next round to revisit will be in September, late September, early October, and then Bill indicated the wrap up in December. So when we go back out to our provincial committees, we'll have a better feel whether there's been some additional changes to the projects that we thought were getting back on track or some projects being delayed, deferred, and in some cases, even canceled. So what I wanted to do is just touch quickly for the amount of time we have here this morning, touch on some of the key projects, and I'm gonna look at the two anchor projects because their market dynamics are very different. This is Newfoundland and Labrador, non-residential construction expenditures. We adjust to, if you're looking at the 2012 dollars, we adjust for inflation. So we're measuring real volume changes from year to year. Newfoundland was on a downward trend. You can see that in 2020, we have a 27% decline. Unemployment rates were up to 40%. They're coming back down, but they're still well below where they were in 2019. This was a trend that was happening in Newfoundland in any case. If you go back to 2016, there were a ton of large major capital projects underway, and as well as commercial activity, all across the province, concentrated more in the St. John's area, more of the resource development up in the Labrador area. These projects were either ending from 2016 or winding down. So if you look at sort of the general trend, it was on a downward path. And if you look at 2020, we see that being pulled down. Had 2020 not happened, which we wish it hadn't, you would have been on a downward trend in any case. And then the added to the complexities of the Newfoundland market is the decline of the price of oil that we had at the start of the year. And that created some echo effect with a very large offshore development project that was deferred indefinitely that we had in our outlook last year. So we see it going back, but the overall downward trend is getting back down, probably more consistent with levels just above where they were in let's say the mid-2000s. So that's the one end of the spectrum at minus 27. Let's go to the other end of the spectrum, which is, of course, you would have guessed would be British Columbia. So British Columbia, of course, was well-primed last year. For those who saw our outlook last year, we saw lots of construction activity stepping up across a wide array of projects that spanned hospitals, education, transit systems, of course, the LNG, pipeline work. There's a whole layers, utilities, Site C. All of these projects were contributing to and starting to build up and stack up that demonstrated that we were gonna see very significant increase in 2021. Now, different than we saw in most other provinces, as projects are getting back on stream, our projection is that investment will be sustained in British Columbia for the non-residential construction industry. In fact, up slightly from about to about 4.3%. Then the real kick in, if the projects that we're tracking that we'll be reviewing again in the fall to make sure that there've been no delays or significant delays, the real step up is 2021, where there are a lot of projects that are currently underway or starting to get up to peak and new projects are expected to start across a whole layer of different projects that expand from the lower mainland and to Northern projects. So we see British Columbia rebounding quickly and also being very significantly strong as we expected or we projected last year. And of course, with that kind of growth comes anticipated labor market challenges. Adding to the challenges of course now is some of these projects require work camps and the COVID limitations that may limit the number of workers on that site could cause some deferrals as we go forward. Right now our reviews are the projects are moving along as scheduled and are starting to increase and ramp up to levels that they expected to be at this time, but compared to where they had it last year. So we believe BC will be back on track coming into 2021 with a long list of projects expected to drive that market. Equally important last year was we had two very strong markets as we in our outlook scenario last year, and that was British Columbia and Ontario. Ontario doesn't have the rapid rise up, but it has long lists of infrastructure projects, transit systems. We have a couple of big large scale nuclear refurbishment projects, one in the greater Toronto area, one in the Southwest area. We've got the international bridge, we got subway work, as I mentioned, healthcare hospitals, Ottawa, literally across the province. So again, we see that decline of about 5%, just over 5% in 2020. We see these projects coming back on stream. We see the rebound. Now we have to sort of emphasize the rebound is contingent upon the projects staying on schedule, both planned and proposed. We know there are risks across some of the municipalities as they struggle with some of their finances and getting those projects rolling. So, and then the other part that really is probably a wild card, while we got a 5% decline in overall non-residential construction, that's being supported by growth in the institutional. On the commercial side of the equation, in 2020, we're looking at about a 16% decline. So that one, there are going to be maybe some challenges and some risks of private investment being more cautious over the next few years as the COVID situation sort of settles down. And of course, the risk of, as we move to the fall of a second wave is always looming, which also contributes to why we want to make sure that the numbers we have have taken that into account as we go into next year. The other province that we're looking at, obviously hit the four key ones, Newfoundland being one where the weakest markets are, the key markets of BC, Ontario, and of course, Alberta. Now, Alberta, in 2019, we already had it going, some significant declines. Oil sands investment were declining. We had 11% decline in 2019. Added on top of that is a 10% decline in 2020. So then with the onset of the combined combination of the decline in the price of oil and the major oil developers pulling back on both new capital and maintenance work. Maintenance work in Alberta was supposed to be very strong the spring of this year. It's getting back on track. Work was deferred, delayed as they sort of adjusted to the COVID requirements, the health and safety requirements. But some work is being deferred to the fall and getting underway now. And some may even be deferred over into next year. But again, the notable declines in commercial, industrial buildings, engineering construction, all on the strong negative side. The government has announced a fairly extensive stimulus package to kickstart the economy with healthcare projects, transit systems. We do know about the pipelines. There are risks to the Keystone XL, particularly on the south of the border and schools. So assuming that the stimulus package can get these projects on track, we see a more quicker rebound for Alberta. But you'll notice that it's kind of flat. There's not a lot of change. It's getting up and being sustained well below where it was say in 12, 2012, 2013. And part of that really is the timing of whether we get some new development going on from the oil sand side of things. There are a couple of major petrochemical projects that are contributing to growth. But overall, we're not seeing any significant growth, just getting back to sort of the flatter market that we saw. So rather than go through every province, I thought it'd be interesting to just do an overall summary here. As you see here, three bubbles. The first bubble, the orange, being where the market was in 2019 from an investment perspective. Then we see Canada. This is non-residential. And you'll see that 7.4% that I mentioned before. And then where we see it going in 2021. In several provinces, we are seeing that the market will get back in 2021 to where the investments were pre-COVID. And as I mentioned, in particular, in Newfoundland and Alberta, market conditions were kind of weaker there as we expected coming into this year. COVID and the price of oil just hammered those provinces in terms of the scenario we looked at going forward. Prince Edward Island was, albeit a small province, it doesn't take much to drive strong levels of activity. Coming into this year, we're expecting record levels of construction employment. We've seen it weakened. We're seeing things coming back on stream for the latter part of the year. The biggest hits in the first quarter and into the start of the second. We see that coming back and they'll remain positive. We expect them to remain positive for the year end. And then a big bump up in 19% PEI, still a small number, but very strong levels of growth. A lot of that being sort of institutional, infrastructure work should drive it. Big risks there is on the commercial side, which is a very important component of the Prince Edward Island economy, will remain weak for the next few years. Nova Scotia being propped up by very strong levels of infrastructure renewal, transit projects, road work, highways, and summation of a probably a couple of billion dollars of healthcare projects. Some are underway now, some that were supposed to be underway this year get deferred to the next year, which is showing the big kickup in 2021. So Nova Scotia staying one of the few problems that also stays on the plus side, and then expected to really start kicking in into 2021, assuming the projects proceed as proposed. New Brunswick, there has not been much change. There are small, you know, not. You're cutting out Bob. Your projects driving New Brunswick, you lose me? You're back now. Okay. I don't know how much you missed of that prior to talking about the rest of the land of Canada. New Brunswick will come back to levels of where it was consistent with 2019. Not a lot of major projects, not a lot of drama in the market, probably fairly flat. Quebec over the last three years was coming off strong levels of growth. Quebec shut down. And that's why we see such a large decrease of 11%, reopened coming back. And we see that coming back, continue to come back to the rest of the year and then into next year, again with hospital work, transit systems as being key drivers. As we look at about 3% growth next year, bringing levels back just under where they were in 2019, but fairly solid levels for the next few years. I already talked about Ontario. Manitoba, you'll see that they are coming down about 10% and also going down in 2021. And that's really because some of the major projects that were driving Manitoba are now winding down. One of the biggest ones would be kiosk hydro development. But there are some big projects that are anticipated to come on related to some civil projects, sewer and water type proposed projects. That will contribute and help offset to some degree the decline of the kiosk project, which was a key driver over the last few years. Saskatchewan, you'll notice that in both 19, which is the orange bubble, and then the burgundy, which is 2020. Saskatchewan had already been on a downward cycle, a non-residential. Many of the projects that we're tracking were on a cycle down. They had peaked and are winding down. Saskatchewan has introduced a renewal program, an infrastructure renewal program that should contribute to next year. A lot of healthcare, schools, other infrastructure work, which should bump up activity for Saskatchewan into 2021. As we sort of review the overall part, if you look at the bottom scale on that chart there, it ranges from a minus 27% drop, which is Newfoundland, to a 4.3% rise, which is British Columbia. As I said, as I started, those are the two anchor provinces and the two extremes of what we see the labor market. Similar to what we saw last year, the only thing we didn't have last year was the pull down and slow down in 2020. And as these projects realign, that's going to determine what happens in 2021. So, you know, when we, you know, Bill had mentioned that we work with the provincial LMI committees. The big task for them is to, sort of the boots on the ground to tell us what's happening with major projects. So whether we're looking at LNG Canada or Site C hydro development in British Columbia, or even projects that were deferred. I forgot to mention in Newfoundland, a couple of major projects that had stalled to just maintenance care in 2020, actually decided not even to come back and they postponed the restart in 2021, primarily because of the weaker oil market as well. So they've shut those projects down to a maintenance mode in any case. So we do see that the major projects we reviewed, we did not see a lot of changes. We probably saw Bill, I guess, to some degree, maybe, you know, three or four quarter differences for some projects. Many of them expected to get back upstream by, starting now through the end of the year, following the normal construction season. So, obviously projects won't be, keep on stacking up to December, but there have been some schedule implications, but the uncertainty as we see it, the uncertainty that the committees demonstrate to us is the final investment decisions. Whether they be resource development projects and weak commodity prices, which were a key driver of our recovery or stronger commodity prices that we drove out of the last recession in 2009. This is a self-imposed recession. I guess the best way to describe it, as workers were sent off the work sites and home and sort of work stoppages. So we have, you know, final investment decisions, uncertainty, you know, across all layers, whether it be private, federal, provincial, municipal, all these components had to come into a line because we do see a long list of projects, some that are underway that will keep on going. We do expect that a certain degree of private investment will be caused, just more cautious in the post COVID. And we think that will carry over into the commercial sector in particular. But as I mentioned, periodic as I went through there, you know, the key drivers as you look across the country is in several provinces, transit, you know, healthcare in many province, road work and other civil infrastructure will be key contributors. As I indicated, as we review with our committees, there's long lists of shovel ready infrastructure projects. Now the key is getting the shovels in the ground. And we see announcements going forward on a regular basis. I mentioned the issue about commercial construction hit hard in 2020, and that will take to probably latter part of 22 and into 23 before we see that one coming back. We do have, you know, the risk of a second wave. We can't ignore it. We can see how, you know, events are changing south of the border and how that will play out. And there's also the continuing on in terms of the industry continues to adapt to the, you know, the health and safety protocols, social or physical distancing, number of crews on a site, you know, and we're trying to look at a little deeper in terms of what they may impact in terms of productivity. Because while we see some of the jobs coming back, we're still seeing a lot of the hours worked numbers to be quite significantly lower relative to the same period last year. So yes, we are starting to get things back. Are we clear and sailing yet? I would think that I would hedge our bets that, you know, we have to continue to track new information as it becomes available. But the projects are there. We just need to get them back at full scale and new projects approved and shovel ready projects in the ground. There is also another risk that is unfolding while the jobs are starting to come back. There could still could be some workers that stay on the sidelines for health and safety reasons, family reasons. While there may not be limitations to mobility, there may be other limitations that workers choose not to be more mobile. We'll have to see how that unfolds in the fall, in particular, in looking at projects like the maintenance work in Alberta. Right now, the maintenance work in Alberta is primarily focused on Albertans, getting Albertans to work. But the bigger projects out in British Columbia, like Site C, were numbers I looked at for the fall of last year, probably 20 or 30% of the workforce was from out of province and then you got the LNG Canada picking up and coming up to a peak in probably by the end of 22, 23, and then probably in the 24th as it starts winding down. So they'll require mobility of workers and with some uncertainty of how mobile the workforce will be, but we believe that the jobs will be in place. So Kyle, I believe that was my last slide. I tried to limit it to sort of a high level overview. As Bill had indicated, we have a mid-year investment report coming out within the next two to three weeks that will go into a little bit more detail on each of the provinces. You're welcome to view that. And also right now, we would welcome what we're seeing and what you're seeing or feeling sort of marries up because that's the most important part of our work is that we get out into the field, although now virtually, to assess what the industry is feeling and their reactions. And as Bill talked about at the beginning, you're an important part of that too, because if the construction is going, you should be going. If construction slows down, things will slow down for you. So Kyle, I'll turn it back. Bill, I don't know if you want any closing comments and then turn it back to Kyle and Mike. I'll keep it quick. Just a couple of things that I would point out. Unlike the recession of 2008, where we were still not quite through the commodity super cycle, which was driving a lot of private sector investment, particularly in the West, we're not seeing a commodity super cycle occurring this time out, which is actually going to put more pressure on government because to get us out of this recession, it's really going to require public sector investment to rebuild confidence, to get private sector dollars back into the economy. There will be more pressure on the public sector this time out than there was even in 20, in the post, I guess, great recession period of 2008. Particularly in the West, we're not seeing a massive expansion of many of the resource facilities, no significant investments occurring. In fact, when we look at most of our major project investments across the country, most of them are public sector funded projects. So the risk that Bob pointed out, which is a very real one, is really the capacity of governments to continue to invest in infrastructure renewal, and in particular at the municipal level. And of course, the recent announcement between the federal government and the provinces to transfer resources over so that the provinces can support municipalities throughout this crisis is going to be very important. But that is really the thing to watch is the challenges that occur there at the municipal level, and whether municipal governments can actually be part of the recovery this time. And that is one issue at this point that we are watching very carefully because it is a significant risk. And as I said, there isn't the same level of private sector investment that is there to help cushion the blow that there was in the 2008 or the post 2008 period. Perfect. Well, thank you, Bob and Bill for the presentation. We do have a question here from Craig, Vice Chairman of Associated Equipment Distributors. But I think it kind of relates to what I was going to say. We've seen a shift in perception from government on the impacts of the current recession. Like you said, Bill, in 2008, 2009, it was quite clear that there were large impacts on the infrastructure sector, on the construction sector, and that a lot of stimulus dollars went towards infrastructure investments. I would say that there's a worry in the US and in Canada that because there's more impacts on other industries like tourism and hospitality, that the chunk of dollars that are invested in infrastructure might be taken away or diverted to other industries. So I appreciate your comments there, Bill, about the need for governments to continue investing public infrastructure dollars to increase private confidence and private investment. So I think this kind of relates into Craig's question, is there still money in the pockets of government, business, individuals, et cetera, to spend if uncertainty goes away? Bob, you want to take a shot at that or should I? You can go ahead. I mean, I think there's a lot of projects that we believe it's there. I think the biggest risk is on commercial, but I'll deflect to Bill. And these valleys have also their challenges as it moves forward. Yeah, I would echo that. I think, Kyle, you summed it up nicely. As I said, the last time out, what we saw coming out of the 2008 recession was still fairly strong investment flows, particularly in Western Canada into oil and gas, but other commodities. We're not seeing that this time. And where we really had a problem in 2008, 2009 was primarily in Ontario and Quebec, where we were really seeing a slowdown in manufacturing. And as a result, less investment occurring in the province. Right now, what we are seeing is a kind of renewal in Ontario in part driven by public sector money, not only into the institutional sector, but also into your traditional infrastructure sector, roads, sewers, water mains, and also bridges and highways. That is primarily being funded by the government of Ontario. And some of those projects are large P3 projects. We haven't heard anything yet regarding concerns over those projects moving forward. But again, it comes back to the recovery that we are seeing. A lot of it is predicated on public sector money being invested in the economy. We're not seeing a lot of private sector money, with the exception of maybe the ICI sector, which we do know is going to take a hit, but there's still a lot of debate as to how big a hit that is, in part because we don't really know what the market trends are going to be. There's a lot of people speculating right now about whether this work from home experience is going to dramatically impact the demand for office space or retail. But I don't think anyone can tell you that they really know that with any sort of clarity right now. It is a trend to watch. There is certainly the potential there, and that would obviously have a spillover effect not only office space, but also into demand for residential housing in urban centers, if suddenly everyone decides that they want to move to rural communities because it's cheaper and you don't actually have to commute every day into an office. There's a lot of speculation about that. To be honest, this isn't the first time we've heard it. It's probably been around for more than a decade. Certainly a great many have been trumpeting the decline of retail for more than a decade, and it's still there. So it's noise. It's obviously something we have to pay attention to. It is a concern, but we haven't yet seen enough movement and not enough time has passed yet for us to actually be able to accurately project what the impact of that might be. If I can add to that, Bill, is that we have these lists of projects to identify the key drivers, and they range from big industrial projects to both commercial, institutional, educational, all across the board. And I have to admit, when I came into the analysis first when we started doing our committee reviews, I was expecting to see a lot more delays. And so we will be reviewing them again come September, and it'll be interesting to see whether the shovels got in the ground and those projects are coming on track because, in fact, we saw some projects that are starting to be, well, planned to be fast-tracked, which is, and that spans across institutional and road work. So we'll have to see how that unfolds in the fall. So maybe, Kyle, we say to you, we'd like to revisit you guys again in October because that's when we'll have a new set of numbers. I don't think it'll be that different, but we will have a better feel for the projects that did get back on track and whether these shovel-ready projects are now getting a little bit more legs to kick into both the latter part of this year and into 2021. Yeah, because I know that Construct Connect keeps a track on delayed projects in both the US and Canada, and I was just looking at it this morning. In Ontario, there's over 600 projects that are delayed. Out of curiosity, is that around the normal amount of projects or is that extremely high because of COVID-19? I would say, go ahead, Bill. Go ahead, Bob. I would say that it's not surprising that you would see those kinds of delays. First, we had tight labor markets coming into the year. Secondly, we did have a slowdown and that has created a bit of a backlog. So it's not surprising. The industry has adapted quite quickly, I think, to some of the new health and safety protocols. There's one thing I have absolute faith in is the capacity of the construction industry to innovate. They will find a way to accommodate the new health and safety protocols with a minimal impact on productivity, but it's gonna take some time. Many of these things are new and they're still trying to find the most efficient ways to continue to move forward with projects while at the same time maintaining the health and safety of their employees. So I think it's not surprising to see many of these projects delayed, but I don't think that they're delayed insurmountably. I think you will see the industry recover. But again, it's not surprising to see that. Most of Quebec was shut down and Ontario did shut down portions of the industry for a significant period. Excellent. Well, I don't see any other questions unless you have anything, Mike, but I think we're done. I was just gonna ask if there are any other questions, but with that, gentlemen, thank you very much today. Good information. I hope our guys will take a look at this and thank you for your time. Thank you. And again, I would just say that anyone that is interested in joining our LMI committees, I would certainly encourage you to do that. The information we provide is only as good as the inputs we get. So there's always room for you and we would love to have you participate because again, your industry is so critical to what we're seeing, particularly on the investment side, on the construction side, because of course you supply all the equipment to the industry. So please reach out to either me or Bob directly or through Kyle. We would be happy to add you. Doesn't take up a lot of time, but you will get essentially a sneak preview of much of the information we shared with you today. Thank you, gentlemen. Have a great day. Thanks everybody for joining. Okay. Thanks guys. Thank you. Bye.
Video Summary
During the webinar, BuildForce Canada provided a preliminary analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the construction industry and its investment projections for the next few years. They found that between February and April, Canada lost around 250,000 construction jobs due to the pandemic. However, in May and June, most of those jobs were recovered and the unemployment rate dropped to around 10%. Looking ahead, BuildForce Canada projects that residential construction will decrease by 7.2% and will likely take until late 2022 to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Non-residential construction is expected to go down by 7.4% this year, with a quicker rebound expected. The commercial sector will likely see a decline of around 13%. Key drivers for the industry will be major infrastructure projects and government investment. However, there are risks, including the ability of the government to fund projects and the impact of a potential second wave of the virus. BuildForce Canada plans to conduct further analysis in the coming months and release a full forecast in early 2021. They also encouraged industry members to join their labor market information committees to provide input and help ensure accurate projections.
Keywords
BuildForce Canada
COVID-19
construction industry
investment projections
construction jobs
residential construction
non-residential construction
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